Box Office Predictions for 2024: Will Deadpool, Wicked and Two Kevin Costners Bring a Bl

May 2024 · 11 minute read

Just as movie theaters seemed to finally recover from the pandemic — and the “Barbenheimer” phenomenon augured a new age of bold studio filmmaking — here comes 2024 to (potentially) spoil the party.

It’s not just that studios pushed many potential blockbusters into 2025 amid Hollywood’s labor strikes. It’s that hardly any of the movies still on the calendar appear to have wind at their backs. (Then again, in 2023, a doll, a plumber and a physicist outgrossed everyone.)

Here’s just a sampling of how 2024 could unfold at the box office.

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Sure Thing

“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)

Release date: March 1
Thrill factor: In the time since “Dune: Part One” grossed $402 million globally (which is not nothing; the sci-fi epic debuted simultaneously on HBO Max), Timothée Chalamet only cemented his star power with “Wonka.” And Zendaya actually gets some screen time in the sequel.
Chill factor: The box office has been completely unpredictable post-pandemic. Who would have guessed that “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” would outperform Marvel and “Mission: Impossible” sequels?
Verdict: Director Denis Villeneuve has already proven he’s adept at adapting the notoriously dense source material, Frank Herbert’s 1965 novel. By escaping the busy holiday season and moving to March, “Part Two” will benefit from timing as the first major blockbuster of 2024. Plus, moviegoers won’t be able to resist seeing those massive sandworms in Imax.

“Deadpool 3” (Disney)

Release date: July 26
Thrill factor: Supposedly, this is a third “Deadpool” movie, and many cast members from the first two films are returning, including Morena Baccarin, Brianna Hildebrand, Leslie Uggams, Rob Delaney and Karan Soni. But for its first R-rated movie, Marvel Studios isn’t taking any chances and brought together the two most lucrative characters of the bygone “X-Men” universe: Ryan Reynolds’ Merc with a Mouth and Hugh Jackman’s Wolverine — and, reportedly, several other Fox-era Marvel characters to boot.
Chill factor: Can Reynolds, Jackman and director Shawn Levy rescue the superhero movie from its precipitous decline?
Verdict: This should do for 20th Century Fox’s Marvel movies what “Spider-Man: No Way Home” did for Sony’s Marvel films — and, perhaps, fully introduce the X-Men into the Marvel Cinematic Universe.

“Speak No Evil” (Universal)

Release date: Aug. 9
Thrill factor: James McAvoy, Mackenzie Davis and Scoot McNairy star in Blumhouse’s remake of the acclaimed Danish horror film from 2022, a dark comedy of manners about house guests who push their hosts’ social boundaries — and then things start to shift into something much more sinister.
Chill factor: The original has one of the bleakest endings in recent memory.
Verdict: On a risk-to-reward basis, low-budget horror is the only sure thing in the film business these days.

Safe Bet

“Gladiator 2” (Paramount)

Release date: Nov. 22
Thrill factor: Ridley Scott’s sequel to his only best picture winner! Paul Mescal in a tunic! Denzel Washington scheming schemes! Pedro Pascal also probably in a tunic! Swords! Sandals! Rome!
Chill factor: Legacy sequels without the main star can be dicey (hello, “Independence Day: Resurgence”), which means Mescal’s embryonic stardom is facing a gladiatorial test.
Verdict: Even without the entertainment of Russell Crowe’s Maximus Decimus Meridius (who, spoiler alert, died at the end of the first film), audiences will turn their thumbs skyward.

“Wicked Part 1” (Universal)

Release date: Nov. 27
Thrill factor: “Wicked” is a hugely pop-u-lar Broadway show, and Cynthia Erivo (as Elphaba) and Ariana Grande (as Glinda) are a thrilling duo to take on musical theater favorites like “Defying Gravity” and “For Good.”
Chill factor: Musicals have a spotty box office track record, and splitting a movie into two parts (the second half of “Wicked” opens in 2025) comes with major risks — just ask “Hunger Games” and “Mission: Impossible.”
Verdict: Director Jon M. Chu looks to deliver a pink-and-green showstopper that’ll play more like “Les Misérables” and less like “West Side Story.”

“Mufasa: The Lion King” (Disney)

Release date: Dec. 20
Thrill factor: Disney’s latest return to the Pride Lands, with 2019’s photorealistic remake, was staggeringly successful, grossing $1.66 billion globally. With beloved director Barry Jenkins behind the camera and the return of Billy Eichner and Seth Rogen’s scene-stealing antics as Timon and Pumbaa, “The Lion King” prequel is primed to be a four-quadrant smash.
Chill factor: Disney’s recent box office misfortunes signal that brand familiarity alone isn’t enough to get audiences to buy a movie ticket. Prequels are a tougher sell, and this one arrives sans Simba or catchy tunes like “Hakuna Matata” and “I Just Can’t Wait to Be King.”
Verdict: As long as Jenkins recaptures the emotional heart of the original, “Mufasa” will be the mane event of the holidays.

Question Mark

“Mickey 17” (Warner Bros.)

Release date: March 29
Thrill factor: Bong Joon Ho’s first film since “Parasite” sees the acclaimed filmmaker team with Robert Pattinson for a weird dystopian thriller. This is what art-house dreams are made of.
Chill factor: Based on Edward Ashton’s novel “Mickey7,” the story follows a space traveler sent on a suicide mission to colonize an ice planet. Things go awry when he’s presumed dead and a replacement clone, dubbed Mickey 8, tries to take his place. It’s unclear how closely Bong plans to stick to the source material. But thought-provoking sci-fi dramas, while awards season bait, don’t always translate to ticket sales.
Verdict: Word-of-mouth will be key, but Bong’s latest genre-bender will deliver the twists and turns that get people excited about going to the movies.

“The Fall Guy” (Universal)

Release date: May 3
Thrill factor: Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt get to flex their action hero chops in the high-octane story of a stuntman who tries to track down a missing movie star so he can save a mega-budget tentpole — which is being directed by his ex-girlfriend. (Got that?) Director David Leitch began his career as a stunt double for Matt Damon and Brad Pitt. So the filmmaker ditched the CG action and got the actors to perform their impressive, death-defying feats. Tom Cruise who?
Chill factor: Leitch, whose credits include “Deadpool 2” and “Bullet Train,” has a solid track record of blending gonzo with goofy. But big-budget action films have mostly fallen out of favor at the box office. At the same time, all of those practical effects are pricey. “The Fall Guy cost $125 million and requires outsized global ticket sales to justify its existence.
Verdict: Early buzz indicates a fun and funny action-adventure, but it’s hard to make these movies stick, even with two likable stars.

“Borderlands” (Lionsgate)

Release date: Aug. 9
Thrill factor: Director Eli Roth has assembled the most eclectic cast of the year — Cate Blanchett, Kevin Hart, Jamie Lee Curtis, Jack Black, Édgar Ramírez, Gina Gershon, Cheyenne Jackson — for a sci-fi action comedy based on the popular video game series set in the distant future on a far-flung, ruthless planet.
Chill factor: Despite some recent successes, video game movies still haven’t quite shaken off their down-market reputation.
Verdict: Could be great fun — who doesn’t want to see Blanchett as a space outlaw? — but this one is definitely execution dependent.

Biggest Risk

“Madame Web” (Sony)

Release date: Feb. 14
Thrill factor: “Fifty Shades” star Dakota Johnson is to the Valentine’s Day box office what Will Smith once was to Fourth of July at the movies.
Chill factor: It’s a terrible time for comic book movies, and Sony doesn’t have the best track record with introducing new Marvel characters outside of “Venom.” (Jared Leto’s “Morbius,” we’re looking at you.) Johnson plays the psychic Cassie Webb, a paramedic with some sort of connection to Spider-Man. She teams with three young women (including Sydney Sweeney) who are being hunted by a deadly adversary. The studio teases a “suspense-driven thriller,” but “Madame Web” sounds like a tired retread.
Verdict: It doesn’t take a clairvoyant to predict that this won’t be getting a sequel.

“Civil War” (A24)

Thrill factor: Writer-director Alex Garland (“Ex Machina”) spins a what-if thriller — and A24’s most expensive film to date — starring Kirsten Dunst as a reporter documenting a new American Civil War, Wagner Moura (“Elite Squad”) and Stephen McKinley Henderson (“Dune”) as her compatriots, and Nick Offerman as the President of the United States.
Chill factor: The country is already on fire, and things will only get more combative as this year’s presidential election heats up. “Civil War” needs to gross roughly $100 million (a benchmark that only one A24 film, the Oscar-winning “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” has ever reached) to begin recouping its $50 million budget. Will enough people want to see the U.S. ripping itself apart as entertainment to reach that goal?
Verdict: “Civil War” could be a cultural touchstone for 2024 — or the first body blow to A24’s financial reputation.

“Horizon: An American Saga” (Warner Bros.)

Release date: “Chapter One” on June 28, “Chapter Two” on Aug. 16
Thrill factor: Kevin Costner, hot off his run on the mega-hit TV series “Yellowstone,” is the star, co-writer, producer and director of this two-part epic Western, which promises to depict no less than the expansion of the American western frontier before and after the (actual) Civil War. To do it, Costner has assembled a gargantuan cast, including (deep breath) Sienna Miller, Sam Worthington, Jena Malone, Luke Wilson, Danny Huston, Michael Rooker, Will Patton, Isabelle Fuhrman, Abbey Lee, Giovanni Ribisi, Thomas Haden Church and Kathleen Quinlan.
Chill factor: Costner has sunk at least $20 million of his own money into these films, including mortgaging 10 acres of his Santa Barbara property. Today’s box office landscape, meanwhile, portends a grim horizon for any pricey Western, but Warner Bros. has decided to release two … in two months.
Verdict: Costner already has plans to make two more “Horizon” movies; perhaps he was sick of getting grief for “The Postman”?

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